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Saturday, September 29, 2007

Head and Shoulders

A head and shoulders pattern is also a trend reversal formation. It is formed by a peak (shoulder), followed by a higher peak (head), and then another lower peak (shoulder). A “neckline” is drawn by connecting the lowest points of the two troughs. The slope of this line can either be up or down. In my experience, when the slope is down, it produces a more reliable signal.



In this example, we can visibly see the head and shoulders pattern. The head is the 2nd peak and is the highest point in the pattern. The two shoulders also form peaks but do not exceed the height of the head.

With this formation, we look to make an entry order below the neckline. We can also calculate a target by measuring the high point of the head to the neckline. This distance is approximately how far the price will move after it breaks the neckline.



You can see that once the price goes below the neckline it makes a move that is about the size of the distance between the head and the neckline.

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Thursday, September 20, 2007

Double Bottom

Double bottoms are also trend reversal formations, but this time we are looking to go long instead of short. These formations occur after extended downtrends when two valleys or “bottoms” have been formed.




You can see from the chart above that after the previous downtrend, the price formed two valleys because it wasn’t able to go below a certain level. Notice how the 2nd bottom wasn’t able to significantly break the 1st bottom.

This is a sign that the selling pressure is about finished, and that a reversal is about to occur. In this situation, we would place an entry order above the neckline.



The price breaks the neckline and makes a nice move up. Remember, just like double tops, double bottoms are also trend reversal formations. You’ll want to look for these after a strong downtrend.

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Saturday, September 15, 2007

Best Days of the Week to Trade Forex

We know that the London session is the busiest out of all the other sessions, but there are also certain days in the week where all the markets tend to show more movement. Below is a chart of average pip range for the 4 major pairs for each day of the week:

TRADING SESSIONS

DAYOF WEEK

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/CHF

USD/JPY

Sunday

24

31

36

25

Monday

92

110

141

95

Tuesday

102

128

162

104

Wednesday

101

123

158

106

Thursday

83

98

121

77

Friday

80

96

117

72

Average PIP range of the 4 majors during each day of the week


You can see that during the middle of the week is where the most movement is seen on all 4 major pairs. Fridays are usually busy until 12pm EST and then the market pretty much drops dead until it closes at 5pm EST. This means we only work half-days on Fridays. The weekend always starts early!.

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Monday, September 10, 2007

Double Top

A double top is a reversal pattern that is formed after there is an extended move up. The “tops” are peaks which are formed when the price hits a certain level that can’t be broken. After hitting this level, the price will bounce off it slightly, but then return back to test the level again. If the price bounces off of that level again, then you have a DOUBLE top!



In the chart above you can see that two peaks or “tops” were formed after a strong move up. Notice how the 2nd top was not able to break the high of the 1st top. This is a strong sign that a reversal is going to occur because it is telling us that the buying pressure is just about finished.

With double tops, we would place our entry order below the neckline because we are anticipating a reversal of the uptrend.



Looking at the chart you can see that the price breaks the neckline and makes a nice move down. Remember, double tops are a trend reversal formation. You’ll want to look for these after there is a strong uptrend.

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Friday, September 7, 2007

Descending Triangles

As you probably guessed, descending triangles are the exact opposite of ascending triangles (we knew you were smart!). In descending triangles, there is a string of lower highs which forms the upper line. The lower line is a support level in which the price cannot seem to break.




In the chart above, you can see that the price is gradually making lower highs which tell us that the sellers are starting to gain some ground against the buyers. Now most of the time, and we did say MOST - the price will eventually break the support line and continue to fall.

However, in some cases the support line is too strong, and the price will bounce off of it and make a strong move up.

The good news is that we don’t care where the price goes. We just know that it’s about to go somewhere. In this case we would place entry orders above the upper line (the lower highs) and below the support line.



In this case, the price did end up breaking the support line and proceeded to drop rather quickly. (*note- The market tends to fall faster than it rises which means you usually make money faster when you are short).

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