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Thursday, December 11, 2008

FOREX-China regulator vows to help exporters

BEIJING, Dec 11 (Reuters) - China's foreign exchange regulator pledged on Thursday to improve its services to the country's exporters, who have been hit hard by weakening demand overseas, while promoting balance in international payments overall. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), in a statement on how it would implement the conclusions of the Central Economic Work Conference that wrapped up on Wednesday, said that it would also keep an eye on the international financial crisis and cross-border capital flows.

'We will greatly improve forex services, facilitate trade and investment, support foreign trade and exports and make it more convenient for firms, especially small and medium-sized ones, to obtain trade finance,' SAFE said on its website (www.safe.gov.cn).

The agency did not provide detailed policy prescriptions. China's exports fell 2.2 percent in the year to November, the first monthly drop in seven years. Actual foreign direct investment into China fell 36.5 percent in November compared with a year earlier.

(Reporting by Zhou Xin; Editing by Victoria Main)

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EUR (Euro) Forex Technical Analysis

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The pre-planned breakout variant for buyers was realized with attainment of basic assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator, having marked strengthening tendency of pair overbought gives risk of further buying positions supports but considering the lack of sustained bearish resistance and considering the chosen strategy there are reasons for supporting bullish planning priority direction for today as well. Hence aiming at decreasing trading risks we assume the possibility of rate return to close 1.3000/20 supports, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.3060/80, 1.3120/40 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.3180/1.3200, 1.3260/80, 1.3320/40. An alternative for sells will be below 1.2920 with targets 1.2840/60, 1.2780/1.2800, and 1.2420/40.

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FOREX-Dollar dips as auto bailout hopes boost risk tolerance

NEW YORK, Dec 10 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a two-week low against the euro on Wednesday and the yen weakened as U.S. lawmakers reached tentative agreement to extend emergency loans to the ailing auto industry, helping to calm investor anxiety.

Stocks rose and investors' rush into safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasury debt slowed, temporarily undermining the dollar's appeal and lifting other currencies such as the euro.

The low-yielding yen also fell as the pendulum swung back in favor of currencies and assets that offer a higher return.

The impetus for Wednesday's moves was news the White House and Congressional Democrats had reached a deal in principle on a $15 billion plan to help automakers restructure and avoid bankruptcy For details, see [ID:nN10505833].

"It's safe to say risk appetite has improved somewhat, and that has a lot to do with talk of an imminent bailout for the U.S. auto industry," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Ruesch International in Washington.

With the year winding down, Esiner also said investors are taking profits on the dollar's recent rise. That has added to pressure on the U.S. currency and may persist into January.

Late afternoon, the euro was up 0.8 percent at $1.3022 after earlier hitting a two-week high of $1.3070. It rose 1.4 percent to 120.70 yen while the dollar added 0.6 percent to 92.64 yen .

The yen also fell sharply against the Canadian dollar , the Swiss franc and the pound , according to Reuters data.

Analysts said fears of Bank of Japan intervention to prevent too much yen strength also weighed on the currency after BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Wednesday he was watching forex moves carefully. [ID:nTKF003197]

Sterling rose 0.4 percent to $1.4789 while the dollar fell 0.6 percent to 1.1985 Swiss francs .

Analysts were quick to point out, however, that the uncertainties facing the global economy meant a relapse into risk aversion was still likely.

One sign of just how parlous the economic outlook is came when China said its exports and imports shrank unexpectedly in November, sparking fears that global demand has vanished. [ID:nPEK31604]

In the United States, while an auto deal looked set to pass the House of Representatives, some Republicans sowed doubts about possible snags in the Senate [ID:nWEN162].

That weakened stock markets and helped the dollar and yen pare some of the losses seen earlier in the session, though both remained down on the day.

In the longer run, though, analysts expect the dollar's rise to fade next year as markets stabilize and investors stop seeking relative safety in the U.S. currency.

"If you analyze why the dollar has strengthened, it has more to do with the rest of the world than with the U.S.," said Mohamed El-Erian, co-chief of Pacific Investment Management Co, at a Reuters Investment Summit in New York on Wednesday.

The euro and sterling, for instance, fell sharply as the euro zone and British economies slowed and their central banks cut interest rates.

He said when "that stock adjustment is over, which we believe will be in 2009, the dollar (will fall)" but added that it's still premature to bet against the greenback.

"You don't want to be 'shorting' the dollar until you have evidence the de-leveraging has run its course. Our sense is that ... three-fourths of the de-leveraging has taken place." (Additional reporting by Nick Olivari; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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