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Thursday, December 11, 2008

FOREX-Dollar dips as auto bailout hopes boost risk tolerance

NEW YORK, Dec 10 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a two-week low against the euro on Wednesday and the yen weakened as U.S. lawmakers reached tentative agreement to extend emergency loans to the ailing auto industry, helping to calm investor anxiety.

Stocks rose and investors' rush into safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasury debt slowed, temporarily undermining the dollar's appeal and lifting other currencies such as the euro.

The low-yielding yen also fell as the pendulum swung back in favor of currencies and assets that offer a higher return.

The impetus for Wednesday's moves was news the White House and Congressional Democrats had reached a deal in principle on a $15 billion plan to help automakers restructure and avoid bankruptcy For details, see [ID:nN10505833].

"It's safe to say risk appetite has improved somewhat, and that has a lot to do with talk of an imminent bailout for the U.S. auto industry," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Ruesch International in Washington.

With the year winding down, Esiner also said investors are taking profits on the dollar's recent rise. That has added to pressure on the U.S. currency and may persist into January.

Late afternoon, the euro was up 0.8 percent at $1.3022 after earlier hitting a two-week high of $1.3070. It rose 1.4 percent to 120.70 yen while the dollar added 0.6 percent to 92.64 yen .

The yen also fell sharply against the Canadian dollar , the Swiss franc and the pound , according to Reuters data.

Analysts said fears of Bank of Japan intervention to prevent too much yen strength also weighed on the currency after BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Wednesday he was watching forex moves carefully. [ID:nTKF003197]

Sterling rose 0.4 percent to $1.4789 while the dollar fell 0.6 percent to 1.1985 Swiss francs .

Analysts were quick to point out, however, that the uncertainties facing the global economy meant a relapse into risk aversion was still likely.

One sign of just how parlous the economic outlook is came when China said its exports and imports shrank unexpectedly in November, sparking fears that global demand has vanished. [ID:nPEK31604]

In the United States, while an auto deal looked set to pass the House of Representatives, some Republicans sowed doubts about possible snags in the Senate [ID:nWEN162].

That weakened stock markets and helped the dollar and yen pare some of the losses seen earlier in the session, though both remained down on the day.

In the longer run, though, analysts expect the dollar's rise to fade next year as markets stabilize and investors stop seeking relative safety in the U.S. currency.

"If you analyze why the dollar has strengthened, it has more to do with the rest of the world than with the U.S.," said Mohamed El-Erian, co-chief of Pacific Investment Management Co, at a Reuters Investment Summit in New York on Wednesday.

The euro and sterling, for instance, fell sharply as the euro zone and British economies slowed and their central banks cut interest rates.

He said when "that stock adjustment is over, which we believe will be in 2009, the dollar (will fall)" but added that it's still premature to bet against the greenback.

"You don't want to be 'shorting' the dollar until you have evidence the de-leveraging has run its course. Our sense is that ... three-fourths of the de-leveraging has taken place." (Additional reporting by Nick Olivari; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Forex - Dollar hits record low vs euro

The dollar briefly plunged to a record low against the euro as concerns mounted over the U.S. mortgage market and its impact on the wider economy. The euro jumped to an all-time high of $1.6038 as confidence on financial markets continued to plummet after the U.S. government on Sunday announced plans to bail out mortgage lenders Fannie Mae (nyse: FNM - news - people ) and Freddie Mac (nyse: FRE - news - people ).

Investors are nervous that a Federal Reserve bail-out could add billions of dollars to the U.S. national debt, and lower the country's credit rating. 'Traders continue to fall out of favour with the dollar, looking for safer currencies instead,' said CMC Markets analyst James Hughes.

'Sunday's announcement by the Fed regarding its mortgage bail-out plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remains somewhat derided in the market -- it's apparently done little more than underline the perilous state of the U.S. economy,' he added.

The market jitters drove the euro higher despite a drop in the German ZEW institute's economic expectations index for July to a record low, while the pound breached the $2.00 mark. In addition, the yen rose to highs not seen in more than a month, even though the Bank of Japan has stressed the need of maintaining a neutral stance on interest rates amid increased uncertainties.

The BoJ, as expected, maintained its overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.5 percent for the 20th meeting running. Attention will now turn to the release of U.S. retail sales and the producer price index, and Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee.

'Bernanke might provide some conciliatory words to provide support to the market, but given the current softness of the dollar, the data releases will also be crucial,' said an analyst at BNP Paribas (other-otc: BNPQY.PK - news - people ). Elsewhere, the pound remained well bid against the dollar, briefly hitting a three-and-a-half month high following stronger-than-expected CPI inflation data.

Official figures showed the key annual CPI rate jumping to 3.8 percent in June from 3.3 percent in May, beating forecasts for a more moderate rise to 3.6. 'The punchy headline number is likely to ensure that the pound remains well bid for now,' said Daragh Maher, senior forex strategist at Calyon.

The data has kept in place expectations that the Bank of England is unlikely to cut interest rates before the end of the year while inflation remains well above its 2.0 percent target.

'Inertia appears the most likely monetary policy stance for now,' said Maher.

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